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Political: Dick Morris finally sees it but others in GOP are still in denial! Grand OLD party

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In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.

By the time you finish with the various demographic groups the Democrats win, you almost have a majority in their corner. Count them: Blacks cast 13% of the vote and Obama won them 12-1. Latinos cast 10% and Obama carried them by 7-3. Under 30 voters cast 19% of the vote and Obama swept them by 12-7. Single white women cast 18% of the total vote and Obama won them by 12-6. There is some overlap among these groups, of course, but without allowing for any, Obama won 43-17 before the first married white woman or man over 30 cast their vote. (Lets guess that if we eliminate duplication, the Obama margin would be 35-13) Having conceded these votes, Romney would have had to win over two-thirds of the rest of the vote to win. He almost did. But not quite.

If Romney couldn’t manage this trick against Obama in the current economy, no Republican could.

If the GOP doesn't adopt policies to reach blacks and hispanics..they better get used to losing. Conservative white people won't be winning the GOP many electionin the current electorate demographics
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 12:40 PM

On Morning Joe today I heard an interesting fact - in 1988 Bush Sr. got 62% of the White vote and took 400+ electoral votes. This election Romney took the exact same percentage of White votes and lost.

Republicans must address both how their policy stances impact Hispanics and how they are perceived by Hispanics - and nominating Marco Rubio for VP ain't gonna do it.

As much as I like Paul Ryan, the day he was announced and the GOP followed the "two white guys" strategy again, I thought that trouble loomed.

by MichiganTed November 7, 2012 12:54 PM

14 million fewer voted this time around than in 08.
by Vinny Gambini November 7, 2012 12:57 PM

Yeah but it wasn't fewer in the blacks hispanics and women turnout Vinny. And they are only going to grow in the electorate demographics!

by Concerned American November 7, 2012 1:01 PM

What policy stance toward blacks do you think would have worked for Mitt Romney?

by chubbs1 November 7, 2012 1:01 PM

I don't know how much the black demographic will grow, and they're about to be eclipsed by Hispanics as "the most important minority" in politics in this country. Taken for granted by the Dems and written off by the GOP, it actually doesn't bode well for the group as a whole I don't think.

by MichiganTed November 7, 2012 1:13 PM

Huntsman could have put a considerable Dent in that. I am a black conservative moderate and would have given Huntsman major consideration.
by goldenchild926 November 7, 2012 1:14 PM

If Mitt would have said in his stump speeches something like...

We need to get people off welfare and into a job (which he did) People need jobs and in order to get them that job we need to stop with bootstraps speeches and mere words and start helping minority single moms and those minorities struggling in poverty to get a quality education by any many necessary so we can give them a real shot at breaking the cycle of poverty that continues to plague their families and communities. We need to provide assistance to daycare, provide tuition assistance even set up funding for nightcare if needed so they can go to school and earn a degree that will start their families down the path of prosperity for themselves and their children.

You would be surprised how far that would go if that stance was adopted by the GOP. But the current GOP would never have an idea like that on their platform.

But they better get some for sure going forward
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 1:15 PM

For the hispanics its easy..they better let go of the immigration policy stance of no amnesty for those already here and stop passing stupid immigration laws that will alienate the hispanics and their votes for years to come.
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 1:20 PM

CA - the words "give", "provide" and "set up funding" appear an awful lot in your paragraph. Someone's gotta pay for all that, and you can tax the millionaires and billionaires all you want, and it won't cover it.

by MichiganTed November 7, 2012 1:27 PM

Yet you can find a way to fund two wars and rebuild schools for Iraqi citizens. That answer the people are buying/

Take that 2% growth in defense spending Romney wanted as a start and apply. Those programs would pay for themselves in the long term by reducing dependency on welfare.

And your answer and stance is why you continue to get no black votes. Your party can find money for endless defense contractor waste and corporate welfare but can't find any money for minorities in poverty struggling to get out.

That better be changing or get used to nights like the last.

Your choice
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 1:34 PM

people are NOT buying
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 1:35 PM

Your delusions truly do run deep, CA.

by Lex Parsimoniae November 7, 2012 1:37 PM

..but not as deep as the history of the GOP getting less than 10% of the black vote LOL

Your party is the one who lost with no black vote AGAIN. You better come up with some ideas if you don't like mine.
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 1:40 PM


I think you should look at the scoreboard and reassess who is delusional
by LOANMAN November 7, 2012 1:46 PM

Romney lost when he didn't pick a minority V.P. from Florida.
by the voice of reason November 7, 2012 2:03 PM

As always CA - it's all a matter of arguing over dollars we don't have anyway.

An interesting read from yesterday:

Click Here

by MichiganTed November 7, 2012 2:04 PM

Again you have dollars for wars and a Trillion dollar defense budget with 2% annual increases but we are just too broke to help our own citizens.


That's why the GOP was "handed it's hat and politely asked to leave"
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 2:26 PM

..but not as deep as the history of the GOP getting less than 10% of the black vote LOL

Your party is the one who lost with no black vote AGAIN. You better come up with some ideas if you don't like mine.
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 1:40 PM

First, not my party, it's ridiculous how many times you have to be told that.

Second, I agree, the dem's have utterly conned the black voters. They keep them as perennial subjects of the realm, convincing them first that keeping them dependent without a way out is a their looking out for them at the same time convincing them it's not their fault they didn't try harder, didn't fight their way up, they were oppressed by those that believe you should earn your way.

If only the republicans could be as good a group of grifters as the dem's.

by Lex Parsimoniae November 7, 2012 2:43 PM

Again back to what the Dem's have done by conning or whatever. Fact is they got the vote now the question on the table is:

What is the party you were supporting this election going to do to attract minorities both blacks and hispanics into their base so they may have a chance at winning future election.

Stay on topic and please don't reference democrats in your answer.
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 2:48 PM

by Concerned American November 7, 2012 3:09 PM

I was staying on topic.

You brought the issue up.

As far as the republican winning the black vote or a better portion, that wasn't going to happen anyway with Obama running, and still a hard nut to crack given how it's been drilled into them that many couldn't survive with out the entitlements.

Even those that do excel protect the welfare state that keeps so many suppressed.

Regarding the latino vote, that could happen from both directions, The republicans need to get their intent across with a better and simpler message and they have to combat a political party and media machine that convinces legal immigrants that the GOP is after them, wants to deny them, wants them gone as well as illegals.

The left and the media are complicit in conflating the term illegal immigrants with the term legal immigrant as if they are one in the same to the GOP.

Of course that holds true with a lot of the messaging, as long as most people base their decisions off the network news alone, without really making an effort to not simply be told what to believe, but actually look and do a little due diligence, I don't see much changing.

by Lex Parsimoniae November 7, 2012 3:21 PM

As far as the republican winning the black vote or a better portion, that wasn't going to happen anyway with Obama running, and still a hard nut to crack given how it's been drilled into them that many couldn't survive with out the entitlements.

If you believe that nonsense you don't know black people at all. Obama wasn't their for Reagan or the Bush's where your party got 10% or less of the black vote. If the GOP offered blacks a better solution..they wouldn't be "conned" by the Dem's as you say.

I sat there and watched Rove and the Kraut robot dude comment on what needs to be done for future elections. Both acknowledged needing to do something about embracing the hispanic vote while neither mentioned anything about the black vote. And that is why they will continue their voting trend with blacks until they develop specific policies on their platform for blacks and hispanics..a many elections they will be losing

They will not get significant hispanic vote gains without changing and embracing immigration reform period. The Bush's recognized and tried but were shot down by their own GOP party.

And Obama's win last night is directly in part due to that fact.
by Concerned American November 7, 2012 3:44 PM

Obviously, you need to read the statement you cut and pasted.

Two separate statements, joined by an "and".

1. Republicans would not get the black vote
with Obama running.

All other issues aside, many voted on race alone, even when it was against their own self interest.

2. Even without Obama, it's been drilled into many of them that they need the entitlements to survive, and republicans threaten that. As was discussed on another thread, there are many, when growing up, see this as a career choice, how to set them selfs up for maximum entitlement benefits.

If you want to argue that, then your blind to what's happening, especially in urban areas.

I do agree with you on immigration reform. It should have been addressed in a common sense and viable way.

Personally, though I like Ryan, Rubio should have been on the ticket.

But we may be seeing him in 2016.
by Lex Parsimoniae November 8, 2012 7:51 AM

ca,il and ny plus the 47% spells doom
for conservatives in future pres. elections.

as long as people get paid for not working
but for their votes,libs will be in the white house.

my concerns are fiscal cliff,healthcare
repercussions,jobs and reforming tax code.

taxing the rich will be obama's 2012 priority.come hell or high water this will
be pushed thru and end result:he wins.

what should be his focus,can wait.i still
do not believe he understands that big govt. will fail.
by dblbogey2 November 8, 2012 11:12 AM

Old quote. Never trust a man who can be bribed with his own money.

by Lex Parsimoniae November 9, 2012 8:45 AM


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